Fertilizer Use and Maize Production in Sub-Saharan Africa

In sub-Saharan Africa, greater use of mineral fertilizers is crucial to increasing food production and slowing the rate of environmental degradation. Regional growth rates in fertilizer consumption have never been particularly high, in part because the real price of fertilizer is higher in Africa than in many other developing regions. As subsidies have been removed and exchange-rate distortions corrected over the past decade or more, relative prices paid by farmers have risen to reflect more closely the economic cost of fertilizer. Consumption growth has thus slowed even more. Nonetheless, during the period of declining growth in consumption, fertilizer use on cereals, particularly maize, has become relatively more important than use on cash crops. Strategies for increasing fertilizer use should thus direct more attention to maize and other important staples. In higher potential areas, some fertilizer use on maize is often economically profitable even at higher relative prices of fertilizer. Additional research on the limiting nutrient under farmers' conditions or on the interactions between nutrients and other crop-management factors could help to increase profitability. Policy analysis for Africa�s fertilizer sector has tended to focus on subsidies and to neglect other important issues, such as solving credit problems at many points in the marketing channel, supporting appropriate agricultural research, and developing and maintaining infrastructure. Agricultural sector strategies that give sufficient attention to these issues must be developed. Although subsidy removal must be one ultimate policy objective, we recommend gradual withdrawal in countries where fertilizer consumption levels are relatively high. Because many African governments require time and stability to develop policy capacity, detailed institutional analyses can help design second-best solutions to problems of fertilizer policy.Crop Production/Industries,

Cereal Crop Productivity in Developing Countries: Past Trends and Future Prospects

This paper synthesizes the evidence on cereal crop productivity in developing countries over the past 30 years and looks at future prospects for productivity growth. For more than three decades we have witnessed the phenomenal growth of cereal crop productivity in the developing world. Termed the Green Revolution, the initial phase of this growth resulted from an increase in land productivity and occurred in areas of growing land scarcity and/or areas with high land values. Significant investments in research and infrastructure development, especially irrigation, were the strategic components of this increased productivity. In the post-Green Revolution period, particularly in Asia, productivity growth has been sustained through increased input use and, more recently, through more efficient use of inputs. Lately, however, indicators show a decrease in the growth rate of productivity of two of the three primary cereals, rice and wheat. The first two sections of this paper present trends on cereal crop productivity in developing countries over the last three decades. Supporting evidence includes yield and other partial factor productivity trends and a summary of studies on total factor productivity. The third section speculates on the prospects for future growth.Crop Production/Industries,

PRACTICAL CHALLENGES TO ESTIMATING THE BENEFITS OF AGRICULTURAL R&D: THE CASE OF PLANT BREEDING RESEARCH

Interest in the economics of plant breeding first emerged during the late 1960s and early 1970s following the well-known green revolutions in wheat and rice. Since that time, few branches of agricultural research have been subjected to as much scrutiny as plant breeding. Impacts assessment studies consistently conclude that the economic benefits generated by successful plant breeding programs are large, positive, and widely distributed. Case studies repeatedly find that investment in crop genetic improvement generates attractive rates of return compared to alternative investment opportunities. Similarly, case studies consistently show that the welfare benefits resulting from the adoption of modern varieties (MVs) are broadly shared by producers and consumers in both favored and marginal environments. Swayed by the large body of empirical evidence that supports these findings, governments, lending agencies, philanthropic organizations, and private corporations have invested millions in plant breeding research. But how reliable are the results of studies that estimate the benefits of plant breeding research? Are the methods used to conduct such studies theoretically sound? And are the data sufficiently complete and accurate? This paper reviews methods used to estimate the benefits of plant breeding research and discusses methodological issues and practical challenges that often receive inadequate attention in applied impacts work. Our goal is not to question the validity of the broad conceptual frameworks used to estimate the benefits of plant breeding research (e.g., economic surplus approach, production function approach). Nor is it our intention to examine theoretical issues that complicate research evaluation in general. Rather, the objectives of the paper are to examine problems that may arise during empirical evaluation of plant breeding research, to discuss what can happen if those problems are ignored or overlooked, and to propose workable solutions. The problems that affect the empirical evaluation of plant breeding research can be grouped into three general categories: measuring the adoption of MVs; estimating the benefits associated with adoption of MVs; and assigning credit for plant breeding research. In principle, estimating the area planted to MVs should be relatively easy. In practice, it is often very difficult. Important issues in estimating the benefits associated with MV adoption include the relationship between experimental and farm level yields; the relative effects of improved germplasm and improved crop management practices; maintenance research; non-yield benefits; and constructing counterfactual scenarios. The existence of spillovers in plant breeding research increases the overall benefits generated by the global plant breeding system, but it also complicates the task of assigning credit among individual breeding programs. CIMMYT researchers, working in collaboration with colleagues from national agricultural research organizations, have conducted a series of studies designed to document and quantify the impacts of international maize and wheat breeding research. Drawing on lessons learned from the CIMMYT studies, each of these three sets of problems that can affect the empirical evaluation of plant breeding research are discussed in detail, and practical guidelines are presented to help those interested in conducting applied impacts studies avoid common pitfalls that if ignored may lead to incorrect empirical results.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Sources of Productivity Growth in Wheat: A Review of Recent Performance and Medium- to Long-Term Prospects

Sources of yield growth in wheat are investigated based on a stylized framework of technical change. Evidence suggests that the relative contribution of input intensification to yield growth has diminished in recent years and is likely to continue to decline in the future. One potential source of yield growth in wheat during the medium to long term is improved efficiency of input use, rather than input intensification, through sustainable wheat production practices rather than pure input increases. Other large gains could be made with continuous adoption of newer and better modern varieties based on advances in wheat breeding. Wide crossing and biotechnology could improve the stability of wheat yields in the intermediate term; their long-term impact on yield under optimal conditions is less certain. World wheat demand is likely to grow more slowly over the next 30 years than it did in the past 30 years. At the same time, a wider variety of technological options will need to be tapped over the next three decades to achieve the necessary gains in wheat yields. Research costs per unit of increased wheat production are likely to be somewhat higher. Nonetheless, continued investment in wheat research is necessary to achieve production levels consistent with constant or slowly declining real world wheat prices.Crop Production/Industries,

Impacts of International Wheat Breeding Research in Developing Countries, 1966-97

Crop Production/Industries, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

GOVERNMENT PATENTING AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER

Intellectual property rights such as patents protect new inventions from imitation and competition. Patents' major objective is to provide incentives for invention, sacrificing short-term market efficiency for long-term economic gains. Although patents are primarily granted to private firms, policy changes over the last 25 years have resulted in greater use of patenting by the public sector. This study examines government patenting behavior by analyzing case studies of patenting and licensing by the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. ARS uses patenting and licensing as a means of technology transfer in cases in which a technology requires additional development by a private sector partner to yield a marketable product. Licensing revenue is not a major motivation for ARS patenting. More widespread use of patenting and licensing by ARS has not reduced the use of traditional instruments of technology transfer such as scientific publication. Once the decision has been made to patent and license a technology, the structure of the licensing agreement affects technology transfer outcomes. As commercial partners gain experience with the technology and learn more about the market, mutually advantageous revisions to license terms can maintain the incentives through which private companies distribute the benefits of public research.patents, licenses, intellectual property rights, technology transfer, Agricultural Research Service, agricultural research and development, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

The Contribution of Genetic Resources and Diversity to Wheat Productivity: A Case from the Punjab of Pakistan

This study makes use of data on wheat production in the Punjab of Pakistan from 1979 to 1985 to 1) examine patterns of varietal diversity in farmers' fields both at the regional and district levels and 2) identify how and in what ways genetic resources have contributed to wheat productivity and yield stability-important considerations to farmers and national authorities where wheat is a staple food crop. Five indicators are used to describe the system of wheat genetic resource use and diversity in farmers' fields. The contribution of farmers' previous selections is expressed as the number of different landraces appearing in the pedigree of a cultivar . The contribution of scientific breeding efforts is expressed as the number of parental combination appearing in a cultivar's pedigree. The diversity of wheat varieties in a geographical area, as related to productivity, is captured by measures of area concentration (diversity in space) and age of varieties (diversity in time). Finally, the relative dissimilarity of cultivars grown in a geographical area is measured using a distance indicator constructed from genealogical information. Disaggregated analysis at the district level demonstrates how diversity patterns are influenced by the production environment and by possible differences in the availability of suitable varieties. The study finds no indication that modern plant breeding technologies have reduced diversity among the wheats grown in the districts of the Punjab of Pakistan during the study period, although brief. Analysis of the genealogical background of the varieties grown by farmers reveals patterns of greater use of genetic resources and dissimilarity of parentage. For some factors related to genetic resource use and diversity, there are large differences between production environments (specifically, irrigated and rainfed areas) and individual districts, which suggest that efforts to increase genetic diversity in farmers' fields will require policy instruments tailored to the individual circumstances of each production environment. Econometric results suggest that greater genealogical dissimilarity and higher rates of varietal replacement are likely to have positive payoffs relative to aggregate yield stability, while in areas where production constraints inhibit farmers' ability to exploit the yield potential of their varieties, better production management is likely to have greater yield enhancing effects than the varietal attributes related to diversity.Crop Production/Industries,

Is the Share of Agricultural Maintenance Research Rising?

This study measures the amount of agricultural research engaged in maintenance research for commodities and non-commodities. The percentage of commodity based maintenance research has risen from roughly 35% in 1986 to 41% in 2008. The percentage of non-commodity based agricultural research is roughly 29%. Additionally, an empirical model is developed to explain maintenance research expenditures. The influences of agricultural research funding, climatic conditions, pest and pathogen control, and agricultural production on maintenance research expenditures are tested in the long and short run. Each category has a statistically significant impact on maintenance research expenditures.maintenance research, research depreciation, agricultural research, total factor productivity, Productivity Analysis,

COMPETITIVE GRANTS AND THE FUNDING OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH IN THE U.S.

To increase the efficiency of the public agricultural R&D system, expanded use of competitive grants to fund state institutions has been advocated. This paper characterizes different funding instruments and empirically assesses the effects of changes in mechanism use. Factors associated with greater levels of competitive grants are modeled.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Assessing the Benefits of Public Research Within an Economic Framework: The Case of USDA's Agricultural Research Service

Evaluation of publicly funded research can help provide accountability and prioritize programs. In addition, Federal intramural research planning generally involves an institutional assessment of the appropriate Federal role, if any, and whether the research should be left to others, such as universities or the private sector. Many methods of evaluation are available, peer review—used primarily for establishing scientific merit—being the most common. Economic analysis focuses on quantifying ultimate research outcomes, whether measured in goods with market prices or in nonmarket goods such as environmental quality or human health. However, standard economic techniques may not be amenable for evaluating some important public research priorities or for institutional assessments. This report reviews quantitative methods and applies qualitative economic reasoning and stakeholder interviewing methods to the evaluation of economic benefits of Federal intramural research using three case studies of research conducted by USDA’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS). Differences among the case studies highlight the need to select suitable assessment techniques from available methodologies, the limited scope for comparing assessment results across programs, and the inherent difficulty in quantifying benefits in some research areas. When measurement and attribution issues make it difficult to quantify these benefits, the report discusses how qualitative insights based on economic concepts can help research prioritization.Agricultural Research Service, Federal intramural research, publicly funded research, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Livestock Production/Industries, Productivity Analysis,